Predicting when retail across the U.S. will resume to normal activity is difficult to do as economic recovery will likely be gradual and vary depending on geographic location.

The projection, from National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, comes as retailers begin re-opening on an incremental basis during the COVID-19 pandemic which shuttered retail brick-and-mortar businesses in late March.

“Getting back to work or shopping in a pre-virus manner is difficult to predict at this time, with households likely to tiptoe back in rather than making an immediate return to the lives they experienced before,” Kleinhenz said in the May issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review. “As states begin to slowly reopen, and assuming the coronavirus does not come back, the economy should begin a process of gradual recovery. My overall impression is that the recovery will have fits and starts among states, regions and cities depending on the severity of the pandemic in their localities.”

He added it may take several months to evaluate the full consequences of the COVID-19 impact on retail but he expects a deep contraction in the second quarter of the year.

“The gap between opinions on current and future conditions indicates that consumers expect a V-shaped recovery as the economy reopens,”” Kleinhenz said.

“In the end, shopping is more than a transaction. It is a social activity that is part of the fabric of American life, making it likely that consumers will want to return to normal shopping habits once the pandemic subsides and the economy fully reopens,” Kleinhenz said.

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